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美国DDGS报价与东南亚市场渐行渐远,远超买家心理价位

 

    价格优势已经重返于DDGS市场。乙醇工厂上周出售了大部分9月份的库存,而且是在供应紧张和国内物价上涨的情况下。在上周市场暂停后,油价再次上涨,上涨了1.50美元/ 吨,达到了161.50美元/ 吨。美国海湾地区的离岸DDGS价格遵循这一步调,价格下跌了3美元/吨,因为国际市场对价格上涨的兴趣减弱了而导致价格为174美元/吨。尽管交易是在当前价值的低端完成的,但商家仍在为维持这个价格。


    由于海外买家尚未对美国DDGS的价格上涨做好心理准备,商家本周在国际市场上 用“难”来形容DDGS集装箱销售。本周,东南亚40英尺集装箱的价格平均上涨1美元/吨,达到193.30美元/吨。8月对菲律宾的发货量上升7美元,而印尼的发货量上升2 美元/ 吨。其他8月份的运输价格基本稳定。在9月份的运输中,几乎每条航线都有价格上涨。


    在国内,DDGS的售价是玉米现货价格的95%,是堪萨斯城豆粕价格的38%,均低于前一周的水平。每单位蛋白DDGS的优势为1.80美元,相当于上周的价值。


    美国农业部FAS的最新出口数据显示,6月美国DDGS出口较5月增长近20%。6月份出口达到889,114公吨,低于2016年6月的出货量。墨西哥是6月份最大的买家,175000吨,其次是韩国(进口123000吨)。


    DDGS Comments:Pricing strength has returned to the DDGS market. Ethanol plants sold most of their September inventories last week and, in the face of tightening supplies, domestic prices have risen. Barge CIF NOLA prices rose again after last week’s pause in the market, gaining $1.50/MT to reach $161.50/MT. FOB U.S. Gulf DDGS prices did not follow in lock step, falling $3/MT to $174/MT as international interest waned in the face of higher prices. Merchandisers are defending asking prices, however, despite trades being completed at the low end of current values.


    Merchandisers are reporting “difficult” container sales on the international front this week as overseas buying interest is not yet ready to follow U.S. prices higher. Prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia increased $1/MT this week, on average, reaching $193.30/MT. August shipments to the Philippines rose $7/MT while those to Indonesia rose $2/MT. Other August shipment prices were largely steady. For September shipment, price increases were noted for almost every route.


    Domestically, DDGS are priced at 95 percent of cash corn values and 38 percent of soybean meal, both down modestly from the week prior. The per-protein unit cost analysis favors DDGS by a $1.80/unit margin this week, equal to last week’s value.


    The latest export data from USDA FAS shows June U.S. DDGS exports rose nearly 20 percent from May. June’s exports reached 889,114 MT which was lower than the volume shipped in June 2016. Mexico was the largest buyer in June, taking 175,000 MT, followed by South Korea (which imported 123,000 MT). (转摘:美国谷物协会 MrDDGS)

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